Resilient Energy and AI Growth in Sync: Chinese Brokerages Raise Views on TotalEnergies and Qualcomm

Keywords: TotalEnergies, Qualcomm, oil and gas prices, free cash flow, AI chips, valuation rerating, energy transition, edge AI

Introduction

As global capital markets continue to reprice assets along two main lines—“high-quality cash flow” and “artificial intelligence growth”—two representative companies from traditional energy and tech, TotalEnergies (TTE.N) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O), have recently received positive ratings from CICC and Southwest Securities, respectively. The former benefits from a high-oil-price environment, low-cost production, and the earnings flexibility created by its power business transition. The latter is opening new growth space through a smartphone recovery, strong auto and IoT demand, and its push into inference chips for data centers. Though the two valuation logics belong to different sectors, they point to the same core idea: when industry cycles, technology upgrades, and capital-spending structures change, the market often reprices leading companies.

TotalEnergies: low-cost strength supports a wide safety margin

CICC gave TotalEnergies an “outperform” rating and set a target price of $104, based mainly on the company’s cost competitiveness and stable cash flow in upstream oil and gas. Data show that TotalEnergies is expected to rank sixth globally in oil and gas production in 2025, with oil production costs of only $23.8 per barrel, a clear advantage among major international energy firms. For energy companies, where they sit on the cost curve determines earnings resilience and their ability to withstand oil-price swings.

The global energy market is still being shaped by geopolitics, supply-demand mismatches, and inventory cycles, and the high-oil-price environment has not faded much. In that setting, low-cost producers can not only earn more when oil rises, but also keep capex and dividends relatively strong when prices retreat. TotalEnergies’ value lies in combining “resource exposure” with “cash-flow exposure,” making it more defensive in a macro environment full of uncertainty.

At the same time, the company is not resting on traditional oil and gas income; it is speeding up its transition into power. As the global energy mix moves toward lower carbon and electrification, the power business may become TotalEnergies’ second growth curve. CICC expects the company’s free cash flow to turn positive in 2027 and its return on assets to rise to 12%. That means it can keep generating cash from legacy businesses while improving capital efficiency and long-term valuation through renewables, power, and integrated energy services.

On valuation, using 4.7x 2026 EV/EBITDA, the target implies nearly 30% upside. For investors, that upside is not just sentiment recovery; it is value normalization built on earnings quality, cost advantages, and transition certainty.

Qualcomm: smartphone recovery and AI expansion open a second curve

Unlike energy assets, Qualcomm’s rerating is driven more by the tech cycle and product mix changes. Southwest Securities gave Qualcomm a “buy” rating with a target price of $298.75, arguing that its current valuation does not fully reflect long-term potential in a world where AI computing is becoming ubiquitous. The biggest change is that its traditional smartphone business is bottoming out and recovering. As high-end handset share rises and edge AI adoption accelerates, chip ASPs may recover, improving mobile-business profitability.

Over the past few years, Qualcomm faced pressure from slowing smartphone growth and weak end-device innovation, which weighed on its valuation. But as edge AI moves from concept to scaled deployment, the smartphone is no longer just a communications terminal; it is a key entry point for AI capability. Qualcomm’s long-term strengths in mobile platforms, heterogeneous computing, and low-power design give it a natural edge in the edge-AI era. Higher premium-model share plus AI upgrades should lift both average selling prices and margins.

More importantly, Qualcomm is not limiting its growth story to smartphones. It is expanding steadily into automotive, IoT, and data centers. In auto, smart cockpits, driver assistance, and in-vehicle connectivity are growing fast, giving Qualcomm longer-dated order visibility. In IoT, industrial connectivity, smart homes, and edge devices are expanding its shipment potential. At the same time, its push into data-center inference chips gives it a chance to enter the AI infrastructure ecosystem and benefit from spreading compute demand.

Southwest Securities used a 25x 2026 PE multiple to set the $298.75 target, far above the current valuation, reflecting a rethinking of its business mix and growth expectations. For Qualcomm, the real story is not just a short-term smartphone rebound, but whether it can use edge, device-side, and inference demand in the AI era to build a true second growth curve.

Conclusion

TotalEnergies and Qualcomm represent two different kinds of investment logic: the former emphasizes resource endowment, cost control, and cash-flow stability, while the latter reflects technology upgrades, use-case expansion, and valuation rerating potential. One benefits from high oil prices and low-cost extraction; the other from edge AI and broader business extension. But both show the same thing: companies with real long-term investment value are often those that find new growth anchors as industry cycles change and turn short-term volatility into long-term advantage.

From a market perspective, investors now need to watch both the defensive value of high-cash-flow assets and the platform potential of tech leaders in the AI supply chain. TotalEnergies’ resilience and Qualcomm’s growth correspond to different risk preferences in asset allocation. As the global energy transition accelerates and AI use cases deepen, these two companies may become representative value samples in their respective sectors.