Friday (August 1, 2026) Asian session: precious metals trade cautiously. Spot gold edged down about $4 from the prior close to near $2,398 per ounce; spot silver showed notable resilience, hovering around $30.80 per ounce, down 0.1%. Platinum continued its recent weakness near $1,040 per ounce. Overnight US data lifted the dollar index from lows to 101.5, pressuring dollar-denominated metals.
Dollar Rebound Is the Main Headwind
Overnight US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 235,000, a two-month low, signaling labor market resilience. This tempered expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts this year. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield back above 4.1%, supporting the dollar index. Consequently, international gold pulled back from its intraday high near $2,405, but buying near $2,390 limited further downside.
Why Silver Holds Up: Photovoltaic Demand and Industrial Attributes
Compared with gold's clear pressure, silver's pullback has been limited, reflecting stronger industrial demand support. Industry estimates indicate global photovoltaic installations will keep growing in 2026; each GW of modules requires about 15 tonnes of silver. Global solar silver demand is projected to exceed 7,000 tonnes, up 18% from 2025. Silver's key role in the photovoltaic chain continues to attract industrial capital buying even amid macroeconomic disruptions.
Falling silver inventories also matter. Latest LBMA data show silver inventories fell for a fourth straight month in June, down 3.2% cumulatively, to near five-year lows. Tight spot supply underpins silver prices.
Technical Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Technically, gold has formed a double bottom on the 4-hour chart. $2,390 is a crucial near-term dividing line; a break could test the 200-day moving average near $2,365. Resistance sits at $2,412 and $2,425. The daily MACD golden cross persists, keeping the medium-term trend bullish, though near-term momentum has eased slightly.
Silver trades within an upward channel on the 4-hour chart: lower rail near $30.50, upper rail at $31.30. The RSI holds near 55, giving bulls a slight edge. A break above the prior high of $31.45 could open further upside.
Asian Physical Demand and Central Bank Buying Provide a Floor
With India's traditional festival season approaching, Asian physical jewelry demand is entering its seasonal peak. Mumbai Gold Association data show gold imports to India rose 22% year-on-year in July, with dealer premiums over the international benchmark climbing to $4 per ounce, a three-month high. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China reported its eighth consecutive monthly gold purchase in June, adding about 1.2 million ounces cumulatively. Amid global geopolitical uncertainty and central bank de-dollarization, official gold buying remains a key medium- and long-term support for prices.
However, a major risk event looms: next Friday's US July nonfarm payrolls report. Traders say precious metals may stay range-bound until the data, with investors cautious. Any upside surprise could force a repricing of the Fed policy path and amplify gold volatility.
Outlook: Short-Term Range-Bound, Long-Term Bullish
Overall, gold is seesawing within the $2,390–$2,410 range; near-term direction depends on the dollar index and risk appetite. But from a longer-term view, global de-dollarization, major central banks' easing expectations, and geopolitical uncertainty remain the core bullish drivers.
Silver shows a 'resilient and prone-to-rise' character. If gold stabilizes and advances, silver is likely to show higher elasticity on industrial demand support. Investors should watch whether silver holds above $30.50; a successful retest could signal a short-term long entry. For gold, watch the $2,390 support; if it holds, light long positions may be considered.
As of writing, spot gold was at $2,398.30 per ounce, spot silver at $30.78, and platinum at $1,042.
